The Guardian (UK)
Open Oil hits five-month high as global stocks wobble on AI fears; retail sales in Great Britain fall as shoppers cut back - business liveRolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsRob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says the biggest news is from S&P’s PMI data is the composite employment index rising above 50 for the first time since the 2024 budget.He said:The jobs balance rose to 50.5 from 48.9 in September, consistent with a 9K month-to-month payrolls gain in October. Solid growth is helping, probably alongside an easing drag from the payroll-tax hike.…The steady recovery in jobs growth further undermines any case for waiting to hike rates. A November rate hike is a shoo-in, and we expect another rone in February. We are very close to adding a third hike in May or earlier. It’s a really close call, but at the margin, we hold off after weak consumer signals this morning. It would take little—small further energy price rises, a hawkish DMP—to push us to three hikes.There are reports of paused spending due to a lack of clarity on domestic economic policy in the run up to the budget, meaning the promising economic picture from the latest PMIs should provide an encouraging base for further robust economic growth through the winter months, barring any adverse surprises to businesses in the tax and spending review.Geopolitics, and notably the potential for conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine to add to energy market volatility, are, however, clearly still unsettling many businesses, and cost of living concerns and broader fiscal worries are being compounded by the shift to higher borrowing costs. Continue reading...