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Open Trump Says 'Probably, Maybe' Iran Talks To Resume This Weekend, 'Not Sure' About Ceasefire ExtensionTrump Says 'Probably, Maybe' Iran Talks To Resume This Weekend, 'Not Sure' About Ceasefire Extension
Summary
Trump says "probably, maybe" Iran talks resume this weekend, "not sure" about ceasefire extension. Iranian report (unconfirmed) says Bab al-Mandab could be forced close tomorrow.
Trump unveils 10-day Lebanon ceasefire, but which Hezbollah has not signed on for, amid heavy IDF attacks on south. BBG reports on potential 6-month timeframe for comprehensive Iran deal, oil spikes.
Iran seeks to boost rial through toll payment scheme; vessels pay Hormuz passage through Iranian banks.
US Navy: vessels seeking entry into Hormuz Strait now fair game for boarding, search, and outright seizure - including for suspicion of 'contraband'.
Hegseth: US forces are ready to restart combat if Iran doesn’t agree to a deal & strait blockade to continue for as long as it takes. Already 14 ships have been turned around.
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Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Yes 70% · No 31%View full market & trade on Polymarket * * *
Trump Still Signals Ambiguity on Peace/Ceasefire Potential
President Trump appeared to confirm ceasefire talks with Iran are still very up in the air, saying that he also doesn't see the need to extend the current two-week ceasefire - "not sure," he said - also amid the going US naval blockade of Iranian-China oil exports, or other sanctioned vessels. With no extension, the ceasefire will expire on April 22.
"If there's no deal fighting resumes," Trump affirmed in fielding reporters' questions. Importantly, talks and timeline are still a big maybe:
President Trump told reporters the next in-person talks negotiating a deal for Iran will "probably, maybe" happen this weekend. He didn't say where, and other U.S. officials haven't confirmed any details.
He took the opportunity in the same remarks to slam the Pope. "If the pope looked at the 42,000 people that were killed over the last two or three months, as a protester, with no weapons, no nothing," he claimed, using the same unsourced numbers he's lately been throwing around. "I mean, you take a look at that, so I can disagree with the pope. I have a right to disagree. I have a right to disagree with the pope."
Unverified alarming reports of next targeted waterway:
Iran's Axios: Bab al Mandab might close soon... https://t.co/2lLUEUQ0Bz
— berggeit (@_berggeit_) April 16, 2026
The president added, "The pope can say what he wants. And I want him to say what he wants. But I can disagree. I think that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. If they do, the whole world would be in jeopardy, the Middle East would blow up and the whole world would be in jeopardy."
"This is the real world, it's a nasty world," he said. "But as far as the pope and saying what he wants, he can do that."
Also, Iran agrees to hand over its enriched uranium(?)... there's nothing from Iran saying this:
"They've agreed to give us back the nuclear dust," Trump told reporters at the White House, using his name for the enriched uranium stockpile that the United States says could be used to build nuclear weapons. "There's a very good chance we're going to make a deal."
And on the newly declared Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, which does not include Hezbollah, Trump told reporters: "I responded to this call and agreed to a timeout, or rather a temporary ceasefire, of 10 days to try to advance the agreement that we began discussing with the ambassadors' meeting in Washington." He added: "For these peace talks, we have two fundamental demands: one, the disarmament of Hezbollah. Two, a sustainable peace agreement, peace from strength."
⚡️An hour before the ceasefire, Hezbollah rockets impact Nahariya pic.twitter.com/s83rPjOUfp
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 16, 2026
Gulf, European officials See Needing 6 Months for Iran deal: BBG, Oil Spikes
A big headline out of Bloomberg has sent oil prices higher:
Some Gulf Arab and European leaders believe that a US-Iran peace deal will take about six months to be agreed and that the warring sides should extend their ceasefire to cover that timeframe, according to officials from the regions familiar with the matter.
The leaders want the vital Strait of Hormuz opened immediately to restore energy flows and are warning in private that a global food crisis may develop if that doesn’t happen by next month, said the officials, who asked not to be identified discussing private talks.
But important caveats remain: who are these "some" Gulf and "European leaders" - the latter who have remained far to the sidelines during this crisis, but who are yes still suffering the effects of the ultra-risky Operation Epic Fury Iran war gambit by Trump. Spike in crude...
Trump: Truce in Lebanon
President Trump has announced an apparent Lebanon breakthrough, announcing on Truth Social that Lebanon and Israel have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. This just after on Thursday Israel launched at least 50 airstrikes in a matter of two hours on South Lebanon, according to national media. Israel says late Thursday its forces have no plans to withdraw ground troops from Southern Lebanon. Operations there look to continue, but presumably the ceasefire means Beirut might not be hit in the interim.
This week, Rubio oversaw historic peace talks between Lebanese officials and the Israeli government; however, which did not include Hezbollah. Both Tehran and Hezbollah have insisted that the Lebanon conflict should be resolved through the Pakistan mediated US-Iran process. The Lebanese government has little actual sway over Hezbollah, the country's single most well-armed and influential paramilitary organization, which has more missiles and arms than even the national army. This means it remains a big unknown whether this 10-day truce will hold. Trump's Truth Social message, which claims he solved "9 wars across the world" and a "lasting peace":
Defiant Iran Reasserts Toll System: Paid Through Iranian Banks
An Iranian parliament official has been cited in newswires as saying the country's planned Strait of Hormuz toll for ships seeking to pass is to be paid through Iranian banks. Previously it was said to be through cryptocurrency, and could be as a high as $2 million Oil rose higher, given this is another indicator this game of chicken in the narrow waterway could soon lead to fresh hostilities, despite the 2-week ceasefire still being in place, soon to expire.
As for negotiations, there's optimism another round of US-Iran talks will occur, with both sides having agreed in principle, but Iran's government informed Pakistan that the US must back off its maximal demands.
Reuters: U.S. and Iranian negotiators have scaled back ambitions for a comprehensive peace deal and are instead seeking a temporary memorandum to prevent a return to conflict, two Iranian sources told Reuters.
Below is a machine translation from the Persian of the fresh parliament statement via state-linked ISNA:
The plan to consolidate Iran's sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz is being framed as a way to strengthen the rial.
Iran is seeking a regulatory role in the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world’s most sensitive chokepoints -positioning it as oversight, not disruption or blackmail.
Under the plan, foreign ships would settle accounts through offices in Iran or via the Iranian banking system, a move aimed at boosting the rial.
Estimated current revenue from managing and regulating maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz: $10-15 billion.
Boarding, Search, & Outright Seizure
Ships seeking to enter the Hormuz Strait already sanctioned by the US just got a lot more vulnerable: under Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports, they're now fair game for boarding, search, and outright seizure, per US Naval Forces Central Command.
"In addition to enforcing the blockade, all Iranian vessels, vessels with active OFAC sanctions, and vessels suspected of carrying contraband, are subject to belligerent right to visit and search," the notice said, referring to the Office of Foreign Assets Control. "These vessels, regardless of location, are subject to visit, board, search, and seizure."
The definition of "contraband" is broad and expansive. It spans weapons, ammunition, combat aircraft, and military electronics, WSJ has described. "Petroleum products and lubricants are conditional contraband due to their essential role in military operations and their contribution to Iran’s war-sustaining economy," the advisory also said. "Contraband is defined as goods that are destined for an enemy and that may be susceptible to use in armed conflict."
US Marine Corps image
Up until now, the blockade - initially rolled out Monday - was limited to ships moving in and out of Iranian ports, but the definition who can be targeted just widened. Meanwhile, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said Wednesday that in the first 48 hours, not a single ship made it past the blockade.
Hormuz Blockade: 'As Long As It Takes'
The US will maintain a naval blockade of Iran for as long as it takes, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth has stated in a press briefing Thursday. He and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine say that US forces are ready to resume major combat operations at a moment's notice, which suggests the initial two-week ceasefire could get extended, as was widely reported the day prior. But this also suggests that Washington likely has no appetite for resuming major aerial operations directly against Iran anytime soon.
General Caine:
At each point, the United States Navy will transmit a warning—a young sailor, normally on the bridge of one of those destroyers. A junior officer picks up that mic and transmits, and I quote:
"Do not attempt to breach the blockade.
Vessels will be boarded for… pic.twitter.com/VT6LvPBUnT
— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 16, 2026
On the question of resumption of major combat operations, Hegseth warned: "To Iran, choose wisely. I pray you choose a deal which is within your grasp for the betterment of your people and the betterment of the world." He followed with, "In the meantime, the War Department is locked and loaded." Additional main highlights to the Hegseth/Caine update and presser:
Iran likes to say it controls Strait of Hormuz but it has no navy
Energy industry not destroyed 'yet', US blockade shutting down exports
For as long as it takes, we will maintain blockade
Launching operation 'economic fury'
Iran is digging out bombed out launchers
I hope you choose a deal which is within your grasp
But again, the chief takeaway is that the Pentagon and Trump administration are making clear that US forces are ready to restart combat if Iran doesn't agree to a deal. On that front, US officials say future talks are likely to be held again in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad. Prior reports have indicated both sides have "agreed in principle" to engage in another round of talks.
Iran's PressTV touting ability to inflict global economic pain...
International Monetary Fund’s chief economist says that growth is expected to slow this year amid repercussions from the war against Iran and disruptions to global oil and gas trade.
Follow Press TV on Telegram: https://t.co/LWoNSpkc2J pic.twitter.com/ZAty9htTov
— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) April 15, 2026
Pentagon: 13 Ships Turned Around
Since the blockade went live, US forces have already turned around 13 ships, according to Gen. Caine in the same briefing. He underscored how far this reach extends, saying operations will take place "inside Iran's territorial seas and in international waters."
Officially, the Pentagon claims the blockade is limited - targeting Iran’s ports and coastal areas while sparing vessels simply passing through the Strait of Hormuz. In practice, however, the net is touted as much wider, as US forces "will actively pursue any Iranian-flagged vessel or any vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran," including so-called "dark fleet vessels carrying Iranian oil," Caine added.
He confirmed that more than 10,000 service members are now involved in the blockade, but with more US servicemembers en route to the region.
Lebanon Still Bombed Heavily by Israel amid US Ceasefire Efforts
Israeli jets pounded Nabatiyeh in southern Lebanon Thursday, unleashing one of the heaviest barrages there since the war began and sending black smoke billowing over the region. Strikes hit near the industrial zone and a supermarket on Nabih Berri Avenue, with nearby suburbs also taking damage, according to Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency.
Iran has signaled urgency on de-escalation, with parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf calling ceasefire in Lebanon "as important as a ceasefire in Iran." He described, "In the Islamabad negotiations and afterwards, we have been seriously pursuing efforts to compel the adversaries to establish a permanent ceasefire in all areas of conflict." Pakistan's army chief is in Tehran mediating between Washington and Tehran.
⚡#BREAKING Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said in a conversation with US Secretary of State Marco: "I am not willing to talk to Netanyahu"
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 16, 2026
Lebanon's leadership is in th emeantime framing any truce as a gateway to talks, despite Hezbollah having rejected direct talks with Israel. The ceasefire it is "demanding with Israel" would be a "natural entry point for direct negotiations," President Aoun said, adding: "Lebanon is keen to halt the escalation… so that the targeting of the innocents ceases, and the destruction of homes" stops.
Destruction of Al-Qasimia Bridge in Southern Lebanon
جسر القاسمية pic.twitter.com/u39LVosxnF
— Lebanon 24 (@Lebanon24) April 16, 2026
He stressed negotiations "are to be undertaken by the Lebanese authorities alone," and said "the withdrawal of Israeli forces… is an essential step," alongside redeploying the army "up to the international borders" to "end any manifestation of armed presence."
And yet Israeli strikes are now hitting infrastructure. A key bridge over the Litani River near Qasmiyeh - linking Tyre and Sidon - was reportedly destroyed, though Israel said it only "struck adjacent to it." The broader campaign is cutting off southern Lebanon, targeting chiefly Hezbollah positions, Israeli officials have claimed.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/16/2026 - 16:00