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Open Automakers Race Into Humanoid Robots As Timeline For Blue-Collar Job Disruption EmergesAutomakers Race Into Humanoid Robots As Timeline For Blue-Collar Job Disruption Emerges
Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee is out with a fascinating note explaining why automakers are making a mad dash into the world of humanoid robotics, arguing that their manufacturing scale, supply-chain depth, and years of investment in autonomous driving give them a structural lead in the emerging physical-AI market.
Lee writes that automakers are also seeking new revenue streams beyond the core vehicle business, with humanoids poised to move from factory floors into the physical world across retail, security, public service, and eventually homes.
From Tesla and Hyundai to XPeng, Xiaomi, BYD, Geely, and Chery, automakers are quickly moving beyond EVs and into humanoids through in-house development, acquisitions, minority stakes, and strategic partnerships. Lee said this trend became visible in China, where multiple OEM-linked robots were showcased at the 2026 Beijing Auto Show.
"OEMs are entering humanoid robotics to boost productivity and unlock new revenue streams," Lee wrote in the note.
She noted, "Automakers have several advantages across hardware, software, and scale. There is significant overlap between vehicle and humanoid components—motors, reducers, sensors —as well as manufacturing."
Here are the automakers in the humanoid robot lead:
1. Tesla is developing its humanoid robot Optimus, progressing from Gen 1 (2022) to Gen 2 and Gen 2.5 prototypes by 2025, reflecting rapid iteration in hardware and software. Its strategy starts with manufacturing applications, with a long- term ambition to expand into consumer and household scenarios. Tesla targets limited commercialization in 2026 and volume shipments in 2027. A key constraint is that dexterous hand capability remains a major bottleneck, limiting real-world deployment readiness despite strong system-level progress.
2. Hyundai, the parent company of Boston Dynamics, is pursuing an aggressive humanoid roadmap, transitioning Atlas from R&D to industrial deployment. Production-ready Atlas robots are being introduced into real factory environments, with initial applications in parts sequencing and heavy-duty manufacturing tasks. The group is targeting annual production capacity of up to 30,000 units by 2028, alongside internal rollout of over 25,000 robots across Hyundai facilities. This combination of full-stack control, large-scale manufacturing plans, and clear volume targets positions Hyundai as the leading OEM in humanoid robot industrialization.
3. XPeng is one of the more ambitious OEMs in humanoid robotics, with its IRON robot evolving through multiple generations during 2024-2025. A key milestone was its 2025 AI Day debut, where IRON's natural, catwalk-like walk went viral—so lifelike that audience questioned whether a human was inside. This showcased a major breakthrough in human-like locomotion and established XPeng as a frontrunner in embodied intelligence. The company targets mass production by end-2026 and global deliveries in 2027, focusing on both industrial and retail/service use cases such as showroom assistants and patrol robots, aiming for near-term commercialization.
4. Chery is currently one of the more advanced OEMs in China on commercialization, with its humanoid robot "Moyin" achieving global delivery of 220 units in 2025 and further deployments across public service scenarios such as policing and medical guidance. Chery's humanoid robot are available for purchase for RMB 285.8k (US$41k) through e-commerce channels like JD.com (LINK). Chery stands out for delivering the first meaningful batch of products among OEMs, a diversified product ecosystem (including robot dogs and service robots), and a clear three-stage roadmap from companion robots to public service and, eventually, household applications.
5. GAC has developed the GoMate humanoid series (now at the 4th-generation GoMate Mini), targeting applications in elderly care, security, and industrial environments, with pilot production planned for 2026 and mass production in 2027. Incrementally, GAC differentiates itself through innovations such as a wheel-legged hybrid mobility structure and by spinning off a dedicated robotics subsidiary to accelerate commercialization in a more market-oriented structure.
Early industrial deployment of these bots:
1. BMW has rapidly progressed humanoid robotics from pilot testing to real production environments, building on early collaborations with Figure's robots in 2025. At its Spartanburg plant, humanoids supported the production of over 30k vehicles through tasks such as sheet-metal handling, demonstrating reliability in high-throughput settings. The company is now expanding pilots to Europe, with deployments in Leipzig targeting battery assembly, intralogistics, and component production from summer 2026. BMW's strategy emphasizes iterative scaling through live manufacturing validation, positioning humanoids as flexible co-workers rather than committing to immediate mass production.
2. Toyota is among the first OEMs to convert humanoid pilots into commercial deployment through a Robots-as-a-Service (RaaS) model with Agility Robotics. Following a successful pilot, Toyota signed a 2026 agreement to deploy Digit humanoids in production, focusing on logistics tasks such as parts handling and line feeding. Initial deployments remain small
Emerging players:
1. Xiaomi has been developing humanoid robots since 2020, launching CyberOne in 2022 and more recently open-sourcing its Xiaomi-Robotics-0 embodied AI model in 2026. Its current focus is on manufacturing scenarios such as inspection and assembly, though no clear mass production timeline has been announced. Xiaomi has demonstrated strong technical progress, including achieving over 90% success rates in real factory tasks and advancing high-precision dexterous hand capabilities, supported by its strength in AI foundation models and embodied intelligence.
2. BYD is advancing an internally developed humanoid robot project (codename "Yao Shun Yu"), initiated in 2022 and supported by partnerships such as its embodied intelligence lab with HKUST. BYD stands out for its deep vertical integration across batteries, motors, semiconductors, and precision manufacturing, as well as its potential to leverage its global dealership network for future commercialization.
3. Li Auto is taking a differentiated approach by framing robotics under a broader "space robot" concept, incorporating wheeled robots for manufacturing and future humanoids potentially for household use. While mass production plans are not disclosed, the company has established dedicated robotics business units. Li Auto is notable for its emphasis on AI, including heavy investment in large models such as Mind GPT, and its vision of integrating robots into a wider in-car, wearable, and intelligent ecosystem.
Complete overview of the auto industry by company developing humanoids:
More color from Lee about why automakers are expanding into humanoids:
Auto OEMs are expanding into humanoid robotics for two main reasons: to raise internal productivity and to open up new revenue pools beyond the core vehicle business. They also believe they possess structural advantages in manufacturing, supply chains, and embodied AI that position them well in this emerging category.
On raising internal productivity: Humanoid robots offer a logical next step in factory and warehouse automation, especially as manufacturers face rising labour costs, an aging workforce, and persistent shortages in repetitive, physically demanding, or harsh-environment roles. While stamping, welding, and painting are already highly automated, final assembly and intralogistics remain comparatively labour-intensive. This leaves a meaningful automation gap in tasks such as material handling, precision assembly, inspection, and testing. Humanoid robots could help narrow that gap by operating in tighter spaces and more complex shop-floor environments than traditional fixed automation. Material handling is a particularly relevant use case, given its high injury incidence and recurring labour shortages during peak production periods. If execution improves and costs fall, humanoids could support both labour substitution and structurally lower manufacturing costs over time.
Opening up new external revenue streams: Some OEMs, including Tesla and XPeng, have framed the long-term total addressable market for humanoid robots as comparable to, or potentially larger than, the automotive market. In addition to manufacturing and warehouse settings, humanoids could eventually address a broad range of consumer and service applications, including patrol and security, retail guide and store operations, and, over the longer term, household assistance. For OEMs, the appeal is not only participation in a potentially large new market, but also the opportunity to extend their capabilities in high-volume manufacturing, supply chain know how, software, sensing, and control systems into a new product category.
Here are the jobs humanoids could displace in the next 1-3 years, 3-5 years, and 5 years and beyond.
We suspect the adoption curve for humanoids will be much steeper than the rollout of automobiles over a century ago.
Humanoid robot adoption should accelerate over the next several years as automakers position themselves to become key suppliers of these bots that could easily disrupt blue-collar work across factories, warehouses, logistics networks, and eventually homes.
The labor disruption theme is already unfolding across white-collar jobs, where AI-related layoffs have topped 50,000 so far this year. Goldman recently outlined the college degrees youngsters should avoid as AI begins reshaping entry-level career paths.
Professional subscribers can read more on humanoids and AI at our Marketdesk.ai portal.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/23/2026 - 18:50